Will Cain Quit?
Whether he has been unfairly maligned by David Axelrod's minions, or is truly a pervert, there will be celebrations tomorrow if Herman Cain steps down. Team Obama will benefit the most from the elimination of the one candidate that could have fragmented two vital coalitions necessary to re-elect the POTUS, and Republicans may have missed their best shot at the White House.

Leaving aside the arguments of how Conservative or capable Cain is, and considering only the strategic viability of a black Republican candidate, Cain may have stripped Obama of at least 20% of his support from the black community, and perhaps more from the "guilty white" crowd that voted for Obama for emotional and racial reasons.

Although the numbers seem pretty minor, the difference going into the general election would be huge, and here's why:

In the primary, the only people voting are those who already hold strong opinions on the candidates, but they will generally support whoever wins their primary. The 40% or so who make up the Rasmussen "strongly disapprove" rating have decided to support the Republican in 2012, and because it's an incumbent year, the 40% or so who at least "somewhat approve" will probably stick with Obama. That leaves approximately 20% of likely voters who don't know enough yet to have a strong opinion. They are not likely to vote in the primary, but they are the deciding factor in the general.

So, next fall, with Obama competing against any white Republican, both sides will go in with about 40% support. The rest of the election is going to be about grabbing the majority of the undecideds. Expect a very dirty fight, without any of the black coalition or the "guilty white" vote switching sides at the last minute.

The math changes with a black Republican candidate. If Cain wins the primary, it's reasonable to expect that many would see him as the guilt-free alternative; Cain is an authentic black man who is the polar opposite of Obama.

Every campaign manager works hard to break the other guy's hard won coalitions. 14% of those who voted for Obama were black, and if 25% defected to Cain, he could add 3% to his base. Assuming that "guilty whites" might similarly jump ship for a black pro-business jobs maker, he might add another 3%.

So Cain could conceivably enter the general election with solid support of 46%. Since the extra 6% is stolen from the base of Obama, the President would start the general with only 34% approval rating. It would be nearly impossible to gain the support of 17 out of every 20 undecideds.

By contrast, no white Republican in 2012 can break racially motivated coalitions. Obama is already arguing that he needs more time, and that racist Republicans stand in the way of reform. He desperately needs to run against a pasty-faced rich establishment guy who can be portrayed as an enemy of the middle class, and Romney, Gingrich or Perry fit the bill nicely.

Obama isn't concerned about the 40% who "strongly disapprove" in Rasmussen's poll numbers, because he knows his team is very good at appealing to those in the 20% undecided category.

Part of that appeal will be the accusation that Republicans can't stand the idea of a black man running for President even on their own team.